Water security the new front in Kashmir struggle between India, Pakistan

Militants seize on fears over India's hydroelectricity plans

Islamist militants are using the water row to stoke anger

This is the message being espoused by the Islamist militant groups who have seized on the water dispute to stoke fears that Pakistan's larger, stronger neighbor is becoming increasingly more powerful. Groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba, the organization accused of the 2008 Mumbai attacks which left over 168 people dead, have been reminding Pakistanis that India once stopped the water in Punjab back in 1948. If it has been done once, it can be done again.

However, Dr. Christain Wagner, a Kashmir expert from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, believes the militants are using the issue out of desperation.

"Accusing India of using water control as a weapon is pure propaganda," Dr. Wagner said. "Since the Indus treaty was signed, India and Pakistan have fought three wars and not once did India use water control as a weapon even though they could have."

"The militants want Kashmir back on the global agenda and the water issue is the latest attempt to do so after using the referendum issue and the right to self-determination," he added. "The militants don't really have a point when they accuse India of stealing water because the water issue is the one and only area which is regulated by both Pakistan and India through the Indus treaty."

"The militants are finding it hard to keep up the pressure on Kashmir," he added. "Kashmir has had a self-appointed state government for a while now; there is less militant support there and Pakistan has been under increasing pressure to reduce its support to the militants there. This is why the water issue has come up because the militants know that it is one subject that Pakistanis in Kashmir will get angry about."

Kashmiri anger of India's domination of rivers

The militant strategy of stirring anger in Kashmir is working

They appear to be right. There is anger in Kashmir and the Kashmiris believe they have every reason to be angry. The Indian central government has put heavy restrictions on Kashmiri projects linked to the rivers running through the state, leaving India to reap the benefits of the hydroelectricity as the people of Kashmir watch potential revenues flow by. Militant groups have been eager to stoke the anti-India fires in this context too - and it takes little to stir up trouble and insurrection in the divided state.

"Until the recent flooding there water supplies along the Indus were low; several Islamist groups in Pakistan claimed that this was because India was constructing dams in Kashmir that could store water flowing into Pakistan," Dr. Gareth Price said.

"Under the Indus Water Treaty, India is not allowed to build dams with water storage capacity on several rivers, but India claims it needs to clear out silt which in effect gives it the capacity to store water. In Kashmir itself, India claims that external militants are stirring up trouble, but most observers believe that the recent deteriorating situation in Kashmir stems from Kashmiris themselves."

Contrary to what the recent catastrophic floods may suggest, Pakistan teeters on the verge of becoming a "water scarce" nation, as defined by the United Nations. Once the current disaster passes and Pakistan begins to rebuild, experts believe that this situation could lead to increased fears and tensions based on the assumption that India is moving to dominate the region's water supplies. Concerned observers believe that regional trouble-makers will begin exploiting these fears for their own agenda.

Author: Nick Amies

Editor: Rob Mudge